Health in 2040: projected patterns of illness in England

Key points

• 9.1 million people in England are projected to be living with major illness by 2040, 2.5 million more than in 2019. This is an increase from almost 1 in 6 to nearly 1 in 5 of the adult population.
• Most of this rise is the result of an ageing population – as life expectancy increases and the baby-boomer generation reaches older age. While living longer is something to celebrate, this will have profound implications for the NHS, social care and other public services.
• We have known for some time that an ageing population increases the demand for health services. This report gives us an idea of the scale going forward. The challenges this creates are not unique to England or the UK – as many high-income countries are ageing at a similar rate.
• Much of the projected growth in illness relates to conditions such as anxiety and depression, chronic pain and diabetes, which are predominantly managed in primary care and the community. This reinforces the need for investment in general practice and community-based services, focusing on prevention and early intervention to reduce the impact of illness and improve the quality of people's lives.
• The number of people living with major illness is projected to increase by 37% – over a third – by 2040, nine times the rate at which the working age population (20–69-year-olds) is expected to grow (4%). This would create additional pressures on us all to care for and fund a growing population with high health and care needs.